Oil supply/demand picture over next 5 years

Let's take a conservative 4% depletion rate.
And let's take a conservative 80-mm b/d consumption/production base. And let's say demand doesn't grow at all. That's 3.2-mmb/d X 5 years or 16-mmb/d.
So the surge in production takes care of depletion and Opec is in charge of meeting any incremental demand.
Then put in a conservative 1.4-mmb/d demand growth scenario per annum. Opec needs to add 7 mmb/d net new output in five years.